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Historian vs Futurist on Human Progress

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Complete video at: http://fora.tv/2008/04/28/Nial... Niall Ferguson debates futurist author Peter Schwartz on the overall nature of human progress.-----Niall Ferguson and Peter Schwartz present Historian vs. Futurist on Human Progress as part of The Long Now Foundation's Seminars about Long-term Thinking.Niall Ferguson, MA, D.Phil., is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University. He is a resident faculty member of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies. He is also a Senior Research Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford University, and a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.He is most recently the author of the books The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West (2006) and Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire (2004).Peter Schwartz is cofounder and chairman of Global Business Network (GBN), a unique membership organization and worldwide network of strategists, business executives, scientists, and artists based in Emeryville, California. Established in 01988, GBN specializes in corporate scenario planning and research on the future of the business environment. From 01982 to 01986, Peter headed scenario planning for the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies in London. His team conducted comprehensive analyses of the global business and political environment and worked with senior management to create successful strategies. Schwartz is the co-author of both the 01999 books The Long Boom, and When Good Companies Do Bad Things: Responsibility and Risk in an Age of Globalization, and is the author of the 01991 book, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. He is a member of the Long Now Foundation's Board of Directors.

Channel: News & Politics
Uploaded: November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am
Author: ForaTv

Length: 06:06
Rating: 4.79
Views: 3329

Tags: beings  civilizations  elites  foratv  future  history  humanity  humans  peace  people  progressive  science  technology  wars  

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ls1z28chris (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
You and I both know the economic reality is that if you want to put a roof over your head, food on the table, have health insurance, and work in a career with any sort of job security, you need the type of job for which at least an undergrad degree is required. It just gets even worse if you start talking about providing for a family as well.Folks do live beyond their means, but simply providing the basics requires indebtedness that takes decades to crawl from under.
ls1z28chris (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
Our system of debt and credit push market prices so high that the option of working and saving is unfeasible. Debt is de facto the only option available.The median individual income of a male HS grad is $29k. For a male w/ a Bachelor's it is $51k. At which level of income, and in what sort of career, would it then be possible to put a roof over your head, food on the table, and have health insurance?
UnhealthySalad (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
Who says most people need a college education? (If I remember correctly, most jobs even in America don't require a college degree). Also, most people can walk or ride a bike to work or school. Those options aren't so bad, it's just that it's more convenient to do otherwise.I would agree, though, that our society has been living beyond their means and are way too addicted to credit. However, it is possible that we could be entering what is called a credit revulsion, which would reverse this.
UnhealthySalad (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
"Many people are ill informed and are completely unaware that other options exist."So?"the other options may be so "bad" as to not be options at all."Subsistence living doesn't seem so bad to me. Neither does being frugal or fiscally responsible."please articulate for me the way in which a contemporary American can get a college education, a good job, a roof over his head, and a means of transportation without drowning in debt."Working, savings.
ls1z28chris (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
Also, please articulate for me the way in which a contemporary American can get a college education, a good job, a roof over his head, and a means of transportation without drowning in debt.As I see it, overwhelming debt is de facto the way of life in America. There are other options, but they are not feasible and therefore cannot be considered options for many people.
ls1z28chris (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
You misunderstand my argument if you think that I am saying that we have not progressed.It is not necessarily a false dichotomy simply because one can opt not to live according to societal norms. Many people are ill informed and are completely unaware that other options exist. Also, the other options may be so "bad" as to not be options at all.
UnhealthySalad (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
False dichotomy. You don't have to live in accordence with "society", which is debt-laden consumptionism, or have to live on the streets. There are other ways.Second, "a hiccup" can occur in any economic system. Either way, goods are scarce. Things don't just pop up because we want them to. So, this is not an argument that can be used to say humans have not progressed. Scarcity will always be with us.
ls1z28chris (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
I understand that the point is highly debatable and to some extent depends on individual subjective interpretation of the terms involved, but I disagree it is only a matter of semantics.You talk about the element of choice being a differentiating factor, but what sort of choice is it to either live withing this system of debilitating debt or live on the street? That is no choice at all. One hiccup in the system, one break in pay, and food/water, a home and cleanliness disappears.
Kataphraktoi17 (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
Ferguson is quoting Clark's A Farewell to Alms. The "human condition" is dependent on intelligence - increase in IQ are heredity, evolutionary process. In Hart's Understanding Human History, he states that the Neolithic revolution, was drivin by IQ. The point is, that the human condition is constantly trapped in Malthusian traps,
UnhealthySalad (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
Well, if you're speaking about the West, I have to strongly disagree. We're way passed subsistence living, to the point of excess and indulgence. Subsistence living requires only food & water, a safe place to sleep/dwell, and a way to keep clean. The fact that people get into endless debt and such is a lifestyle choice. So to me your argument is simply semantic. Human demand has shifted (as it always will once other demands have been met), but I don't believe we're worse off because of it.

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